To my knowledge no one has done a poll about the correlation between voting outcome and political lawn signs. Do the number of lawn signs for one candidate translate into actual voter turnout for that candidate?
I was pondering this with Hubby as we drove home after Mass last night. Without going into the long story of why we do what we do, we attend a church in Manchester, NH and live in Leominster, MA. Instead of taking the highway home, we took Route 101 west to Route 13 south. So while Hubby drove, I counted the number of signs for McCain and Obama along Route 13. This road meanders through Milford and Brookline, NH into Townsend, Lunenburg and Leominster, MA.
If a lawn had duplicate candidate signs, I counted them as one. Since it was at night, I missed at least 2 spots with signs, so I believe a margin of error at +/- 2 is in order. From the intersection of Route 101 and 13 to Hamilton St., Leominster, I counted McCain: 27 Obama: 8.
Some observations: the New Hampshire side had WAY more signs, PERIOD. Since NH is a battlefield state, that’s not surprising. But I was surprised to see so few Obama signs on the Bay State side. McCain was evenly distributed. I also want to mention the possibility of other local/state candidates as surrogates for national candidates. In Leominster there are tons of signs for Dennis Rosa, Democrat city councilor running for state rep. Does that translate into Obama votes? Over in NH, Sununu has the state wallpapered but I heard he’s trailing in the polls. But the way the polls have been all over the place, I don’t trust them.
Anyway, my unscientific polling kept me awake and the plethora of McCain signs gave me real hope.